Trunov Philipp Olegovich – Sc.D. in Political Sciences, Leading Researcher, INION RAS
Security problems in the Greater Middle East have created both new opportunities (to demonstrate responsibility as security guarantees) and new threats (vulnerability) for European countries. The constant leitmotif of the plans and actions of the EU member states in the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel region is the aspiration to prevent the repetition of the refugee crisis and increase in terrorist activity in Europe (2015–2017). Methodologically, this article develops the provisions of the theory of conflict resolution and examines the possibilities of managing confrontation (on the example of Iran’s «containment»). The author analyzes the reasons for the elimination of the military presence of European states in Afghanistan (2021) and Mali (2024), i.e. on the «flanks» of the Greater Middle East, and the decrease in the use of the armed forces of the EU member states in the central part of the region. The shortcomings of European states’ usage of political and diplomatic tools in the conflict resolution process are examined. It is indicated that after the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict (since October 7, 2023), the EU member states tried to balance between the interests of Tel Aviv, the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and Arab countries. Having failed in their attempts to present some security guarantees for the unstable countries of the Greater Middle East, European states in 2022–2024 initiated the transition to «containment» of Iran. The EU member states have not played a significant role in the critical weakening of the western part of pro-Iranian «axis of resistance» (in Lebanon and especially in Syria), but have tried to take advantage of the situation. Their own fight against the Yemeni Houthis has been ineffective. The article concludes about the crisis of European states’ strategic presence in the Greater Middle East and the limitations of their ability to overcome it in the nearest future.
Greater Middle East, Near and Middle East, North Africa, Sahel, NATO, EU, Afghanistan, Mali, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iran, «containment», USA, Trump.
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