Abramova Ekaterina Aleksandrovna – Ph.D. Student, Junior Researcher, Institute for African Studies RAS Degterev Denis Andreevich – Sc.D. in Political Sciences, Ph.D. in Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher, Institute for African Studies RAS
In the process of rapid changes in the geopolitical situation in the Sahel region, it is not only the reconfiguration of the balance of power that deserves attention, but also the formation of a regional security complex, the core of which is the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS – Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso). This study proposes a model and outlines the geographical boundaries of the security complex in the Sahel, and reveales the dynamics of changes in the balance of power at the level of regional and external actors. The crisis of the Françafrique system, which emerged as a result of coups d’état against the backdrop of growing anti-French sentiments in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso (2020–2023), is forcing the former metropolis to adapt its strategy in the zone of «privileged influence» to new realities. It seems premature to claim that France is completely «withdrawing» from the region. In the absence of its former arsenal of levers of influence in the Sahel (military presence, development assistance, etc.), France retains the ability to indirectly influence regional processes, including through trilateral diplomacy. The study predicts the most possible approach of French diplomacy within the framework of the «triangle» of relations with Algeria and the ASS countries. It is conceivable that Paris will pursue a competitive strategy, using the tensions between Algeria and Mali to contain the growing influence of non-Western players in the Sahel, such as Russia.
Sahel, balance of power, regional security complex, France, Algeria, ASS.
Download text