Trunov Philipp Olegovich – Sc.D. in Political Sciences, Leading Researcher, INION RAS
The withdrawal of the Bundeswehr from Afghanistan (Summer 2021) and the refusal to use it in Syria (by 2022) have clearly demonstrated that Germany’s strategic positions in the Greater Middle East has weakened significantly. Germany is currently trying to restructure them, choosing the «containment» of Iran as the key priority. This process launched in the early 2020s, developed dynamically after the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict (since October 7, 2023). Among other factors, Germany suspended its participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program. Since February 2024, Germany, under the auspices of the EU, has been involved in the fight against the Yemeni Houthis (i.e. the southern part of the pro-Iranian «axis of resistance») in the Red Sea. However, neither this decision nor Germany’s deepening cooperation with the UAE and especially Qatar could compensate for the degradation of its dialogue with Saudi Arabia, which began in the late 2010s due to Germany’s attempts to persuade Saudi Arabia to stop operations against the Houthis. Germany has managed to maintain its strategic influence on the borders of Iran – in conflict-prone Iraq, choosing with particular care the forms of using the Bundeswehr in this country. Actively exploiting the critical weakening of the western part of the pro-Iranian «axis of resistance» in Syria, Germany has established a dialogue with the pro-Turkish movement Hayat Tahrir al-Sham*, which overthrew the Assad regime in November – December 2024. In the context of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Lebanese Hezbollah positions (since September 2024), Germany has also intensified cooperation with official Beirut. At the same time, Germany has spoken out against Israel’s retention of Lebanese lands and has increased its contribution to the naval component of the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Following the tragedy of October 7, 2023, Germany announced its solidarity with Israel and support for the IDF ground operation in the Gaza Strip. However, as the fighting dragged on, Germany began to encourage Israel to reduce military activity and has once again declared that the only formula for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is «two states for two peoples». On the «Palestinian question» Germany cooperated closely with Jordan (its most trusted partner in the region) and Egypt. The author concludes on the evolution of Germany’s approach to conflict resolution in the Greater Middle East.
Germany, Iran, JCPOA, «axis of resistance», Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Syrian conflict, Hezbollah, Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Jordan, Egypt
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